GM EVANS ANSWERED DR. ELO IN CHESS LIFE, OCTOBER 1987
Fischer's Conditions
Chess Life readers will no doubt recognize Dr. Elo as the Elo of rating
fame. Unfortunately, Arpad, we will never know if Bobby would have
played even if FIDE had granted all of his conditions.
I find Mr. Losoff's arguments unconvincing. It's like saying that the
seventh game of the World Series is irrelevant because at 3-3 both
teams have already proven their equality. The purpose of rivalry is to
determine a winner. Chess fans -- like sports fans -- are entitled to a
result after two players have slugged it out for, perhaps, six months.
Furthermore, Fischer's tie clause contains a trap because if the match
reaches 8-8 then the challenger must win two games to gain the title.
This condition is obviously unfair. Except for the champion who keeps
his title, no one would be happy with a 9-9 tie. I believe that the
incument should have no edge whatsoever.
P.S. "Dr Euwe was Correct in his remark," wrote Dr. Elo.
In his letter to Evans on Chess, Elo explained this reference by
noting: "And like you, Dr. Max Euwe rightly pointed out that the
rematch clause gave Anatoly Karpov a bigger mathematical edge than
anything Bobby Fischer ever sought."
wrote:
DR. ELO'S LETTER TO GM EVANS
[Searching the Net I found this interesting letter from Arpad Elo
in the Chesscafe archives.]
June 19, 1987
To: Larry Evans Reno, Nevada
Dear Larry:
Thank you very much for your letter of May 29 and the inclosed
literature on CHESSGATE. The latter is a sad commentary on the
state of US chess and the USCF. I am very much afraid that the
coming elections will not change the situation much. Most of
the voting delegates are the clubhouse political types who will
elect their own kind to the Policy Board. And those on the PB
will be ever jealous of their small powers and suspicious of
the masters. I hope I am wrong about the election, so let's
wait and see.
the Kalme claims, I was not convinced by his arguments and
I don't think he convinced anybody. At that time (1975) I made
an extensive probabilistic analysis of the situation which
compared various likely events under the two systems of the
match and without doubt the Fischer conditions favored the
champion --- and in retrospect rightly so. This analysis runs
to eight pages and if you are interested I could send you a
copy. A shorter version appeared in the magazine CHESS but
unfortunately I have no copy either of the article or of the
magazine.
Further in retrospect/there is a simple argument in favor of
the Fischer conditions without any elaborate probabilistic
calculations. I owe credit to one of our local players (Al
Losoff) for putting me on the train of thought which I
regrettably missed twelve years ago. It goes as follows:
1. If the match at any time stands at 9:9 it indicates an
equality between the contestants.
2. Thus the next decisive game could go either way since the
contestants have equal probabilities of gaining the next
decisive game.
3. Thus a win by either player in the next decisive game shows
no superiority any more than a single throw of a coin shows a
superiority of heads or tails.
4. A 9:9 result then is properly declared a drawn match since
the challenger has shown no clear superiority.
I find this intuitive approach more convincing than any fancy
probabilistic calculation and I only wish I had had the insight
to see it 12 years ago. Who knows, we might have seen a
Fischer-Karpov match. Or would Bobby have found other excuses
for not playing?
Cordially,
/s/ Arpad E. Elo
PS: Dr Euwe was Correct in his remark. AEE