POLITICAL ANALYSIS

I have been on the transpacific blower and
exchanging e-mails with some Federation politerati.
Here is some of what I have heard:

1. A long-time California USCF observer figures
that the schism among members of the oligarchy or, as
he puts it, "the club," had everyone fighting so much
that they failed to notice an invasion from outer
space. In this rendering, Susan Polgar and Paul
Truong are the space invaders.

2. This same California observer believes that
Bill Goichberg could win reelection as president,
though Jim Berry is a definite candidate for the
office. \o bet on either Goichberg or Berry -- a view
that I also heard from an observer in New York, who is
on the inside.

3. What about the Polgar-Truong mandate? I buy
Sam Sloan's analysis that Randy Bauer and Jim Berry
owe a lot to Polgar. Their victories, though they
would rightly insist on serving as their own men,
reinforce rather than detract from the Polgar-Truong
mandate.

My New York observer states that the mandate will
be ignored COMPLETELY by a Board majority. Bauer has
pledged not to support anyone as president who has not
previously served on the Board, which likely
eliminates both Polgar and Truong from the presidency.

4. A third observer, who is friendly enough with
the Polgar-Truong couple, states that neither is
interested in the post of vice president or secretary.
That leaves only the treasurer's position, which
Randy Bauer will likely assume.

5. Neither Polgar nor Truong will hold office on the
new Board, though they are the clear winners of this election.


6. The California observer says that this is the
first election in which the Old Guard has been unable
to keep events under control. (Not quite true. 1990
and 1991 were other examples.) He attributes the sea
change to OMOV.

7. One more election necessary? There is
general agreement that Polgar-Truong are here to stay,
and they will eventually put together a Board majority
in the next election or the one following. They are
the products of OMOV, which this writer and Larry
Evans did so much to bring about and which has
empowered those with reputation and enormous energy.

8. Two personal observations:

A. For once, an election result ought to be respected, and Susan or
Paul Truong should be offered the presidency, if they want the office.

B. The victory of Randy Bauer bodes ill for those favoring free
speech
and basic decency in chess affairs. He is a censorship type who
will maneuver behind the scenes with a political knife to ban writers
and
purge dissidents. He will work hard to ingratiate himself with the
FIDE
types, including Kirsan Ilyumzhinov, who is accused by human
rights organizations of both torture and murder. Such is the nature
of the Bauer person.

Yours, Larry Parr