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Old November 8th 07, 04:45 PM posted to rec.games.chess.misc
Rob
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Posts: 2,112
Default Yale University Age based Rating predictor

On Nov 7, 12:20 pm, help bot wrote:
On Nov 7, 12:16 pm, Rob wrote:

Interesting toy to mess with. Interesting to test it with actual
performances.


http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/chess.htm


Ridiculous! It predicts that at age 100, I will be back
where I started at 1000 on GetClub.

Seriously, I think they factored in certain assumptions
about players starting out young, reaching their peaks
fairly rapidly -- that sort of thing. My decline should be
much faster than predicted by this tool, unless rampant
ratings inflation returns soon (like right now).

-- help bot


LOL

It predicted Korchnois to within 100 points. He actually scored higher
than the predictor... but thats not bad over a 30 to 40 year span.

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