wrote ...

Elo is Elo, and Fischer's performance rating in '92 was 2720. I'm using
this *fact* to illustrate how strong Fischer still was *twenty years*
away from the game, and to conclude within all bounds of reason that in
1975 Fischer was still in top form despite being away for a mere three
years, good enough to beat Kaprov.

There are a number of questionable statements in the paragraph above. Let's
start at the beginning.

1. "Fischer's performance rating in '92 was 2720."

In 1992, Spassky was rated 2560, 100 points lower than in 1972. In 1992
Fischer won by the same five-point as in 1972 (discounting the forfeit
loss), but the match was 10 games longer (not including the forfeit loss in
1972). Therefore Fischer's performance rating in 1992 was much lower than in
1972. The figure I have seen quoted for Fischer's 1992 performance rating is
2627.

2. "I'm using this *fact* to illustrate how strong Fischer still was *twenty
years* away from the game ..."

We have shown, I think, that the "fact" relied on in this argument is not a
fact.

3. "... and to conclude within all bounds of reason that in 1975 Fischer was
still in top form ..."

Highly unlikely that Fischer was in anything like top form after three years
away from the game. It's certainly not "within all bounds of reason" to make
this questionable argument. From what little we know of Fischer's life
between 1972 and 1975, it appears he wasn't doing much serious chess work.
Meanwhile Karpov was beating all comers on the way to qualifying for the
title match.

4. "... good enough to beat Kaprov [sic]."

Hmm, after so many doubtful earlier statements in this argument, we have to
examine this conclusion very carefully. We know Spassky was in relatively
poor form when he lost to Fischer in 1972. We know this because he had been
playing poorly in events leading up to the match, and we have the statements
of Spassky and many other strong players that Spassky was in poor form, as
demonstrated by the fact that he made uncharacteristic mistakes several
times during the match.

We know the match loss galvanized Spassky, and he returned to form by
winning the very strong 1973 USSR Championship. Then he played a
quarterfinal match against Karpov. Karpov crushed Spassky more easily than
Fischer had in 1972, though Spassky was not in good form in 1972 and
supposedly was in top form against Karpov.

Based on Karpov's stunning result against Spassky, and Fischer's lack of
practice or serious study between 1972 and 1975, it is hard for me to
conclude that Fischer would have defeated Karpov easily--if at all--in 1975.

Tim Hanke