Harold Buck wrote:
David Richerby wrote:
It may be that the effect you're seeing is a starting transient --
systems like this take a while to settle down to the `true rating'.

It's a fallacy to think about an ELO rating as a random variable
estimating someone's "true rating," since a person's strength changes
over time (in technical terms, the quantity is not stable).

I'm not really considering the Elo rating as an RV (at least, not
consciously) but winning or losing a game can change one's rating by 1%
or so and I don't think my ability changes by anything like that much
during a single game.


Dave.

--
David Richerby Dangerous Umbrella (TM): it's like
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