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On the Correlation of Game Length to Playing Strength



 
 
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  #1  
Old May 20th 09, 05:56 PM posted to rec.games.chess.analysis,rec.games.chess.misc,alt.chess,rec.games.chess.computer
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Default On the Correlation of Game Length to Playing Strength

On May 18, 10:17*pm, Patrick Volk wrote:

Expert v. Patzer - Expectation would be a short game. The expert would
likely destroy any position from the patzer.


I figured out a way to get some relevant stats on this from
ChessBase. I set it to search for games by some World Champions and
very high-ranking GMs, all rated 2600 to 2800, with the proviso that
the opponent must be rated 2000-2200. This gives us games with a sort
of Expert-to-Patzer spread, an Elo rating differential of 400 to 800
points. I also searched for the same GMs, with the proviso that both
players must be rated 2600 or higher, to get stats between near-
equals. Here are the results:

Karpov:
1561 games vs. 2600+, average length 42 moves
83 games vs. 2000-2200, avg. length 37 moves

Kasparov:
1121 games vs. 2600+, average length 39 moves
34 games vs. 2000-2200, avg. length 35 moves

Korchnoi:
970 games vs. 2600+, average length 42 moves
26 games vs. 2000-2200, avg. length 38 moves

Timman:
1006 games vs. 2600+, average length 41 moves
31 games vs. 2000-2200, avg. length 37 moves

Tal:
228 games vs. 2600+, average length 32 moves
14 games vs. 2000-2200, avg. length 35 moves

Interestingly, we have Tal, the sort of player one might think would
blow patzers off the board, actually taking longer against inferior
opponents. But overall there does seem to be a trend toward slightly
shorter games when the opponents are of highly disparate strength. Yet
it is not a big difference: only about 4 moves on average, i.e. about
10%.
This is in a situation where the win expectancy for the higher-rated
player is 92 to 99 percent. Therefore it would appear that the
corelation between game length and strength discrepancy is quite
low.
  #2  
Old May 20th 09, 08:44 PM posted to rec.games.chess.analysis,rec.games.chess.misc,alt.chess,rec.games.chess.computer
William Hyde
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Posts: 382
Default On the Correlation of Game Length to Playing Strength

On May 20, 12:56*pm, wrote:
On May 18, 10:17*pm, Patrick Volk wrote:




[,,,]

Thanks for posting that, Taylor. Interesting stuff, and a good basis
for an article (hint, hint).

* Interestingly, we have Tal, the sort of player one might think would
blow patzers off the board, actually taking longer against inferior
opponents.


But, with 14 games I doubt that we can draw any such conclusion. Even
for the other players, the number of games against weak opposition
may not be enough for hypothesis testing.



William Hyde
  #3  
Old May 20th 09, 09:38 PM posted to rec.games.chess.analysis,rec.games.chess.misc,alt.chess,rec.games.chess.computer
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Default On the Correlation of Game Length to Playing Strength

On May 20, 3:44*pm, William Hyde wrote:
On May 20, 12:56*pm, wrote:

On May 18, 10:17*pm, Patrick Volk wrote:


[,,,]

Thanks for posting that, Taylor. *Interesting stuff, and a good basis
for an article (hint, hint).


* Interestingly, we have Tal, the sort of player one might think would
blow patzers off the board, actually taking longer against inferior
opponents.


But, with 14 games I doubt that we can draw any such conclusion. *Even
for the other players, *the number of games against weak opposition
may not be enough for hypothesis testing.


It is admittedly a small sample. Super-GMs like these don't mingle
much with the sub-NM rabble. I tried CB searches on a few other top
GMs — Anand, Kramnik, Ivanchuk et al — and found they hardly ever
played anyone that low.
Tal was a bit different; there were times when, like Morphy, he'd
play anyone who asked. A member of my Vermont club, Alan Shaw, rated
about 2100-2200, told me of a night he played quite a few blitz games
with Tal as MT knocked back quite a few G&Ts. Shaw managed to hold his
own at first, then Tal got serious and won like 10 in a row. Of
course, such games don't make it into databases.
  #4  
Old May 20th 09, 10:13 PM posted to rec.games.chess.analysis,rec.games.chess.misc,alt.chess,rec.games.chess.computer
William Hyde
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Posts: 382
Default On the Correlation of Game Length to Playing Strength

On May 20, 4:38*pm, wrote:
On May 20, 3:44*pm, William Hyde wrote:


Would it help if the lower category was extended up to 2300?

I could do a hypothesis test when I finish my current work (sometime
late next week though I may sleep for a couple of days afterwards). I
would need not just the averages, but the data, though.

* Tal was a bit different; there were times when, like Morphy, he'd
play anyone who asked. A member of my Vermont club, Alan Shaw, rated
about 2100-2200, told me of a night he played quite a few blitz games
with Tal as MT knocked back quite a few G&Ts. Shaw managed to hold his
own at first, then Tal got serious and won like 10 in a row.


Well, they say that what you learn while drunk, you recall best while
drunk.

It's odd, though. The few soviets I've known who were exposed to gin
recoiled in horror at this spoiled vodka. Mind you, this was before I
even knew there was such a thing as good gin.

William Hyde
 




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