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| Tags: bogus, innes, mystery, solved, statistics |
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#11
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On Mar 22, 11:45 pm, "help bot" wrote:
On Mar 22, 11:23 pm, "Rob" wrote: Ad hominey? we cookin something bot? Another interesting way to approach the subject of variance in results between White and Black would be a thoughtful consideration of annotated games. As you stste below, I am now nor have I or shall I ever have a chess title. As a US citizen I cannot hold a Royal Title. I would also shun a title as it means nothing outside of the small realm of people who even know what it would be. Country fried ham steak, red eye gravy three eggs over easy and good Jamacian Blue Mountain Cofffee... Now do you "Smellllllllllll , what tha' Rob is cookin?" Rob For instance, if, in a game between FM Mitchell and IM Innes, the former were to reflect that after 1e4 d5 he would gladly accept a draw by repetition after... [patented forcing line omitted] on account of his IMness' higher rating (and title!), we might chalk up a mark for supposed respect for the opponent. By sharp contrast, were the FM Rob Mitchell to say instead that he found the possibility of such a quick draw acceptable on account of it nixing one game while leaving the other -- AS WHITE -- to decide their mini-match, we could chalk one up to a decided preference for the presumed superior winning chances of the player who has the White pieces. Of course, traditionalists will insist we ignore such comments on a technicality; they will point out that neither RM nor PI really has any title or high rating whatsoever, but that is beside the point. We might just as easily look over the game annotations of real-titled players, such as GM Fischer or IM Ftakniktckk (sp? --whatever!). The idea is that the truth of the matter is not necessarily to be found only in dry statistics, but also in the revelations of the great players themselves, as plainly evinced in their writings. Many of these great players have, fortunately for us, left a legacy of notes in plain English; and even those who write in some strangely bizarre dialect, such as IM Innes for instance, can sometimes be translated to a certain extent. I don't wish to be perceived as a statistics monger on account of my frequent references thereto; it is only because of the inherent immunity to personal bias that I so often refer to such things, just as I might perhaps mention broccoli (yuck) when talking about nutritious foods, while leaving out any mention of grits. -- cook bot |
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#12
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On Mar 22, 9:56 pm, "help bot" wrote:
The way I see it this: not only did his IMness get GM Adorjan's statistics all screwed up, Innes' latest excuse, that he never said the stats represented _all_ W Ch games, and that therefore they should have been understood to represent only *_some_* world championship games, is worse than his original error. The stats he gave in fact _do_ represent *_ALL_* games ever played in ALL world championship matches 1886-1990, *_plus_* ALL THE OTHER GAMES those world champions ever played, insofar as they were included on Adorjan's unnamed database. This is very clearly stated by Adorjan, but apparently misunderstood by Innes, as happens so often. but GM Adorjan himself was apparently working with bogus, or partial stats. himself. There is some definite systematic bias in Adorjan's data. Earlier I noted Adorjan's surprise that in his database there were more games where the world champions played White than Black. In particular, he seemed puzzled that for Capablanca and Alekhine, games as Black were less than 35% of their totals. I surmised that his was due to the many simultaneous exhibitions JRC and AA gave, in which they would usually play White on all boards. Checking ChessBase 2005, I've confirmed that this is true. It has literally hundreds of simul games for both JRC and AA. Whatever database Adorjan used (he didn't say), it's likely it too has hundereds of simul games. I would submit that these have no place in any serious attempt to determine whether "Black is OK" or not. If all or most of a simul's games are preserved, then we have the GM winning 90+% and White looking invincible, due to the low strength of those playing Black. If only a few games are preserved, these tend overwhelmingly to be the upsets, where a relative patzer manages to draw or beat the GM, producing a sampling error in Black's favor. By no means can we assume that these two biases cancel each other out over the full database. In order to get meaningful stuff out, you gotta put in complete, uncorrupted data. What I would submit is that data that causes distortion must be weeded out. Adorjan should limit his sample to serious games between strong masters, and avoid games that are like a wrestling match between Hulk Hogan and Pee Wee Herman. And what is even more important is this: you don't start off with a theory that Black is OK and THEN try and justify it using statistics. Duh! You start off with (complete) statistics, and from these you try to extrapolate meaning -- not the other way around. The meaning should flow *from* the source, like a river, to whatever sea is in its path. And always downhill, going with the data, not working against it to help any pet theory. -- raft floating bot |
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#13
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"Taylor Kingston" wrote in message oups.com... On Mar 22, 9:56 pm, "help bot" wrote: The way I see it this: not only did his IMness get GM Adorjan's statistics all screwed up, Innes' latest excuse, that he never said the stats represented _all_ W Ch games, Kingston - it was yYOUR 'excuse' to attack that YOU inserted all - and as I wrote - you will insist on your own DUMBTH. That's all there is to it - and you have fallen out with everyone on the same basis. You were so predictable that we had bets on how you would present yourself )))and that therefore they should have been understood to represent only *_some_* world championship games, is worse than his original error. The stats he gave in fact _do_ represent *_ALL_* games ever played in ALL world championship matches 1886-1990, *_plus_* ALL THE OTHER GAMES those world champions ever played, insofar as they were included on Adorjan's unnamed database. This is very clearly stated by Adorjan, but apparently misunderstood by Innes, as happens so often. "Apparently" another suppostion like 'all'. Is there no end to the the fruitcase reviewer who after 20+ messages to clarify whatever his understanding is with anyone else, can still offer 'apparently'. ))So, what is your point Kingston? Does it have to do with your understanding, with my representation of Adorjan, or with Adorjan's representation. Surely to God you can't continue to be vague so long? Do you actually have a point you can state in a few sentences? ROFL What the hell is it? Phil Innes but GM Adorjan himself was apparently working with bogus, or partial stats. himself. There is some definite systematic bias in Adorjan's data. Earlier I noted Adorjan's surprise that in his database there were more games where the world champions played White than Black. In particular, he seemed puzzled that for Capablanca and Alekhine, games as Black were less than 35% of their totals. I surmised that his was due to the many simultaneous exhibitions JRC and AA gave, in which they would usually play White on all boards. Checking ChessBase 2005, I've confirmed that this is true. It has literally hundreds of simul games for both JRC and AA. Whatever database Adorjan used (he didn't say), it's likely it too has hundereds of simul games. I would submit that these have no place in any serious attempt to determine whether "Black is OK" or not. If all or most of a simul's games are preserved, then we have the GM winning 90+% and White looking invincible, due to the low strength of those playing Black. If only a few games are preserved, these tend overwhelmingly to be the upsets, where a relative patzer manages to draw or beat the GM, producing a sampling error in Black's favor. By no means can we assume that these two biases cancel each other out over the full database. In order to get meaningful stuff out, you gotta put in complete, uncorrupted data. What I would submit is that data that causes distortion must be weeded out. Adorjan should limit his sample to serious games between strong masters, and avoid games that are like a wrestling match between Hulk Hogan and Pee Wee Herman. And what is even more important is this: you don't start off with a theory that Black is OK and THEN try and justify it using statistics. Duh! You start off with (complete) statistics, and from these you try to extrapolate meaning -- not the other way around. The meaning should flow *from* the source, like a river, to whatever sea is in its path. And always downhill, going with the data, not working against it to help any pet theory. -- raft floating bot |
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#14
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On Mar 23, 3:17 pm, "Chess One" wrote:
"Taylor Kingston" wrote in message oups.com... On Mar 22, 9:56 pm, "help bot" wrote: The way I see it this: not only did his IMness get GM Adorjan's statistics all screwed up, Innes' latest excuse, that he never said the stats represented _all_ W Ch games, Kingston - it was yYOUR 'excuse' to attack that YOU inserted all - and as I wrote - you will insist on your own DUMBTH. That's all there is to it - and you have fallen out with everyone on the same basis. You were so predictable that we had bets on how you would present yourself )))and that therefore they should have been understood to represent only *_some_* world championship games, is worse than his original error. The stats he gave in fact _do_ represent *_ALL_* games ever played in ALL world championship matches 1886-1990, *_plus_* ALL THE OTHER GAMES those world champions ever played, insofar as they were included on Adorjan's unnamed database. This is very clearly stated by Adorjan, but apparently misunderstood by Innes, as happens so often. "Apparently" another suppostion like 'all'. Is there no end to the the fruitcase reviewer who after 20+ messages to clarify whatever his understanding is with anyone else, can still offer 'apparently'. ))So, what is your point Kingston? Does it have to do with your understanding, with my representation of Adorjan, or with Adorjan's representation. Surely to God you can't continue to be vague so long? Do you actually have a point you can state in a few sentences? ROFL What the hell is it? (sigh) Phil, everyone else reading this already knows my point. You, however, rarely if ever understand a point even when it's a foot long, sharp as a tack, and you sit right on it. |
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#15
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"Chess One" wrote in message news:FBWMh.33$J21.13@trndny03... "Taylor Kingston" wrote in message oups.com... On Mar 22, 9:56 pm, "help bot" wrote: The way I see it this: not only did his IMness get GM Adorjan's statistics all screwed up, Innes' latest excuse, that he never said the stats represented _all_ W Ch games, Sorry to respond more on my own comment: But this has to be the best joke of the year so far. Because, says Kingston, I never said 'all' W Ch games, there is some implication for him that I was cheating, as if to say, he inferred for his own reasons I said 'all', and this is to represent 'bogus' statistics. --- BUT! as of his latest writing I see he now sort of vaguely attacks Adorjan - and I suggest that he write him directly - and I will join in! using this introduction to inform Adorjan of his grave error. Inter Alia, I hope he will forward my greetings to the sausage-eating peoples of central Europe. Truly it is said: Taylor Kingston to Chess History , is as the Beach Boys are to Kafka. May he also say this to Jocba, who will no doubt reply in his own terms to Mr. Kingston's appreciations, and my own false representation of the Hungarian ... ~ hang on ~ another thought - tell Adorjan I still wait an answer to his /own/ contribution to Aki Magyar 1956, [from his favorite Celt!] I want to read it. ha kenyeret eszed se e mu tamogataoikent hozzajararulni ahhoz, hogy 1956 dicsosege tovabboroklodjek gyermekeink es unokaink sziveben! Is fearr sgios cos bharr gnimh ghlain Na fos agus sgios meanman; mairadh sgios meanman go brath: cha mhair sgios cos acht aontrath. And tell the son of a bitch that this my language is a much older one than his Tired feet after great achievements are better ... Weariness of the spirit lasts forever ... Tell him that. Gus an ginear mi 'm phàiste Phil Innes |
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#16
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On Mar 23, 3:45 pm, "Chess One" wrote:
Is fearr sgios cos bharr gnimh ghlain Na fos agus sgios meanman; mairadh sgios meanman go brath: cha mhair sgios cos acht aontrath. Ph'nglui mglw'nafth Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn. Gus an ginear mi 'm phàiste Grundig blaupunkt luger frug Watusi snarf wazoo Nixon Dirksen nasahist Rebozo boogaloo |
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#17
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Dear Andras Adorjan,
Permit me to introduce you to Mr. Taylor Kingston, a Californian, who resents the false way he understands I represented statistics in your titles, Black Sucks, and also Sucks Forever! I hope you will both get on together, since Mr. Kingston was once a Great reviewer of chess books for Chesscafe, and you will both conclude perhaps that I am a villain, so that Mr. Kingston can publish his reply in the newsgroups where he takes issue with me. I leave it to you both to come to this or whatever conclusion, and the essential honesty of Mr Kingston to repeat what you yourself have to say to the public. It is not necessary to copy me your correspondance together, even though I act in an unlikeable way in the public message below. Under no circumstances should you copy this message to Mr. Edward Winter, since he will not understand the last comment of all, which has to do with the faith/insight of children. Cordially, Phil Innes "Chess One" wrote in message news:FBWMh.33$J21.13@trndny03... "Taylor Kingston" wrote in message oups.com... On Mar 22, 9:56 pm, "help bot" wrote: The way I see it this: not only did his IMness get GM Adorjan's statistics all screwed up, Innes' latest excuse, that he never said the stats represented _all_ W Ch games, Sorry to respond more on my own comment: But this has to be the best joke of the year so far. Because, says Kingston, I never said 'all' W Ch games, there is some implication for him that I was cheating, as if to say, he inferred for his own reasons I said 'all', and this is to represent 'bogus' statistics. --- BUT! as of his latest writing I see he now sort of vaguely attacks Adorjan - and I suggest that he write him directly - and I will join in! using this introduction to inform Adorjan of his grave error. Inter Alia, I hope he will forward my greetings to the sausage-eating peoples of central Europe. Truly it is said: Taylor Kingston is to Chess History , as the Beach Boys are to Kafka. May he also say this to Jocba, who will no doubt reply in his own terms to Mr. Kingston's appreciations, and my own false representation of the Hungarian ... ~ hang on ~ another thought - tell Adorjan I still wait an answer to his /own/ contribution to Aki Magyar 1956, [from his favorite Celt!] I want to read it. ha kenyeret eszed se e mu tamogataoikent hozzajararulni ahhoz, hogy 1956 dicsosege tovabboroklodjek gyermekeink es unokaink sziveben! Is fearr sgios cos bharr gnimh ghlain Na fos agus sgios meanman; mairadh sgios meanman go brath: cha mhair sgios cos acht aontrath. And tell the son of a bitch that this my language is a much older one than his Tired feet after great achievements are better ... Weariness of the spirit lasts forever ... Tell him that. Gus an ginear mi 'm phàiste Phil Innes |
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#18
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On Mar 23, 7:32 am, "Rob" wrote:
As you stste below, I am now nor have I or shall I ever have a chess title. Ah, but this ducks the real question: ARE YOU OR ARE YOU NOT (yes, I know I'm shouting like a lunatic) A MEMBER OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY? As a US citizen I cannot hold a Royal Title. I would also shun a title as it means nothing outside of the small realm of people who even know what it would be. Now wait a second. Have you never heard of the process of amending the Constitution? Look, if we want to elect the Governator as our President, all we gotta do is make a teeny, tiny amendment and POW -- he's on the ballot! By the same process, even you could be anointed a "Sir" or a "Lord" or what have you. (The the two of you fight it out with Conan style swords and the winner gets the job -- sound fair enough? Oh, BTW, after I pick up your head from the bottom of the steps how do you wish to be buried?) -- Conan bot |
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#19
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On Mar 23, 4:19 pm, "Chess One" wrote:
se e mu tamogataoikent hozzajararulni ahhoz, hogy 1956 dicsosege tovabboroklodjek gyermekeink es unokaink sziveben! Ash nazg durbatuluk Ash nazg gimbatul Ash nazg thrakatuluk Agh burzum ishi krimpatul And tell the son of a bitch that this my language is a much older one than his Gus an ginear mi 'm phàiste Nom goopa nar del yummo, nov schmoz ka pop. |
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#20
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On Mar 23, 1:37 pm, "Taylor Kingston"
wrote: Innes' latest excuse, that he never said the stats represented _all_ W Ch games, and that therefore they should have been understood to represent only *_some_* world championship games, is worse than his original error. The stats he gave in fact _do_ represent *_ALL_* games ever played in ALL world championship matches 1886-1990, *_plus_* ALL THE OTHER GAMES those world champions ever played, insofar as they were included on Adorjan's unnamed database. This is very clearly stated by Adorjan, but apparently misunderstood by Innes, as happens so often. IM Innes is quite insane, and as such he is immune from any and all responsibility for his actions, inactions, or commentaries on said actions, inactions, or other items I may have left out. See Wikipedia's article on insanity and chess: "The Morphy Syndrome". You see, it's a bit like bankruptcy in that once you file, you can no longer be held accountable for past debts. In IM Innes' case, he went cuckoo many years ago, and thus he is retroactively exempt. (Note: this in no way means he cannot still be ridiculed, however.) -- legal bot |
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