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| Tags: chance, insufficient, losing |
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#21
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wrote:
[...] given the determination of organizers to use sudden-death, it was the best anyone could come up with. Well, you want there to be a fixed time when the next round starts, right? The only options are sudden-death time controls or adjournments. Dave. -- David Richerby Erotic Laser (TM): it's like an www.chiark.greenend.org.uk/~davidr/ intense beam of light but it's genuinely erotic! |
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#22
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On Mar 22, 7:27 pm, David Richerby
wrote: wrote: [...] given the determination of organizers to use sudden-death, it was the best anyone could come up with. Well, you want there to be a fixed time when the next round starts, right? The only options are sudden-death time controls or adjournments. Wrong. There is another possibility which still yields a "fixed time" for the start of the next round; it's called adjudication. ------------------------------------------------------------- Back in the old days, there were serious problems with adjudication, including bias on the part of the adjudicator which might have him granting, say, Jose Capablanca a draw where he has given Joe Patzer a loss. But today, we have the answer to personal bias: computers. It also just so happens that the /strongest/ chess players in the world are reasonably inexpensive programs, and many tournament directors already have a notebook computer handy, for their pairings program. In addition, there are sites on the internet which give easy access to some basic endgame table- bases (although of limited use for now). -- help bot |
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#23
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David Richerby wrote: wrote: [...] given the determination of organizers to use sudden-death, it was the best anyone could come up with. Well, you want there to be a fixed time when the next round starts, right? The only options are sudden-death time controls or adjournments. Dave. -- David Richerby That's correct. The question is whether the benefits of sudden death exceed the price paid for it. The answer is far from obvious. |
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#24
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help bot wrote: On Mar 22, 7:27 pm, David Richerby wrote: wrote: [...] given the determination of organizers to use sudden-death, it was the best anyone could come up with. Well, you want there to be a fixed time when the next round starts, right? The only options are sudden-death time controls or adjournments. Wrong. There is another possibility which still yields a "fixed time" for the start of the next round; it's called adjudication. ------------------------------------------------------------- Back in the old days, there were serious problems with adjudication, including bias on the part of the adjudicator which might have him granting, say, Jose Capablanca a draw where he has given Joe Patzer a loss. But today, we have the answer to personal bias: computers. It also just so happens that the /strongest/ chess players in the world are reasonably inexpensive programs, and many tournament directors already have a notebook computer handy, for their pairings program. In addition, there are sites on the internet which give easy access to some basic endgame table- bases (although of limited use for now). -- help bot Nonsense. Adjudication is the worst possible solution. Computer evaluations are simplistic, useful evaluation might take hours or days, and deciding the result of a game on the basis of a computer program's valuation of .1 of a pawn plus or minus is moronic. Fortunately, there is zero chance of such a suggestion being taken seriously. |
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#25
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help bot wrote: David Richerby wrote: wrote: [...] given the determination of organizers to use sudden-death, it was the best anyone could come up with. Well, you want there to be a fixed time when the next round starts, right? The only options are sudden-death time controls or adjournments. Wrong. There is another possibility which still yields a "fixed time" for the start of the next round; it's called adjudication. ------------------------------------------------------------- Back in the old days, there were serious problems with adjudication, including bias on the part of the adjudicator which might have him granting, say, Jose Capablanca a draw where he has given Joe Patzer a loss. But today, we have the answer to personal bias: computers. It also just so happens that the /strongest/ chess players in the world are reasonably inexpensive programs, and many tournament directors already have a notebook computer handy, for their pairings program. In addition, there are sites on the internet which give easy access to some basic endgame table- bases (although of limited use for now). You would have to factor in ratings. If a game between two 1500-rated players is adjudicated as a win using a line that only a 2500-rated chess computer can find, that wouldn't be fair. But if you factor in ratings, what of the player who is playing his first rated game? I wonder if some variation on the backgammon doubling method of forcing a losing player to resign might work... |
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#26
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Guy Macon http://www.guymacon.com/ wrote:
I wonder if some variation on the backgammon doubling method of forcing a losing player to resign might work... Doubling only works in matches. In a tournament, the correct procedure would be for each player to double every move so that whoever wins gets the highest possible score. Dave. -- David Richerby Broken Mentholated Painting (TM): it's www.chiark.greenend.org.uk/~davidr/ like a Renaissance masterpiece but it's invigorating and it doesn't work! |
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#27
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David Richerby wrote:
Guy Macon http://www.guymacon.com/ wrote: I wonder if some variation on the backgammon doubling method of forcing a losing player to resign might work... Doubling only works in matches. In a tournament, the correct procedure would be for each player to double every move so that whoever wins gets the highest possible score. Dave. Not if you change the basic scoring to [-1, 0, +1] and you double BOTH the positive gain for a win and the negative score for a loss. Note that without the doubling, [-1,0,1] is the same as [0, 0.5, 1.0]. I suspect the actual effect would be to increase the number of draws. After a few doubles, it becomes too expensive to take a risk and play for the win. Imagine how backgammon would change if you allowed players to agree to a draw. -- Kenneth Sloan Computer and Information Sciences +1-205-932-2213 University of Alabama at Birmingham FAX +1-205-934-5473 Birmingham, AL 35294-1170 http://KennethRSloan.com/ |
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#28
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Kenneth Sloan wrote:
David Richerby wrote: Guy Macon http://www.guymacon.com/ wrote: I wonder if some variation on the backgammon doubling method of forcing a losing player to resign might work... Doubling only works in matches. In a tournament, the correct procedure would be for each player to double every move so that whoever wins gets the highest possible score. Not if you change the basic scoring to [-1, 0, +1] and you double BOTH the positive gain for a win and the negative score for a loss. That still doesn't quite work. In the last round, two middle-of-the- field players may as well double to infinity because they've nothing to lose and whoever wins the game will win the tournament. Perhaps one could invent some sort of Crawford's rule analogue to deal with this? (Crawford's rule says that a player cannot double in the first game where his opponent needs just one point to win the match, though he can redouble if his opponent is foolish enough to double. This is to prevent the person who's trailing in a match using the `nothing to lose' argument and doubling as soon as his opponent needs a single point to take the match.) Even without this sort of repeated doubling, suppose player A believes he's in a won position and doubles. B, his stronger opponent redoubles immediately because he can see that A is actually lost. Even assuming that A takes the hint, the game is still worth four points and more because of A's incompetence than B's skill. I suspect the actual effect would be to increase the number of draws. After a few doubles, it becomes too expensive to take a risk and play for the win. For really good players, yes. But it's hard to imagine really good players doubling and redoubling -- games of chess don't tend to have the to-ing and fro-ing that backgammon does. Imagine how backgammon would change if you allowed players to agree to a draw. I've played a bit of backgammon but mostly against the computer. I can't see any circumstances under which one might agree a draw -- if the game looks level, you'd just wait and not double, since it'll surely unbalance itself after a while. Since the men can only move forwards in Backgammon, progress of a sort must be made all the time so I don't see a situation comparable to the sort of honest draw in chess where neither player can make progress by any means other than a gross blunder from the opponent. I've not played backgammon except socially and against the computer -- am I missing something? Dave. -- David Richerby Beefy Spoon (TM): it's like a piece www.chiark.greenend.org.uk/~davidr/ of cutlery that's made from a cow! |
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#29
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On Mar 23, 9:25 am, Guy Macon http://www.guymacon.com/ wrote:
help bot wrote: David Richerby wrote: wrote: [...] given the determination of organizers to use sudden-death, it was the best anyone could come up with. Well, you want there to be a fixed time when the next round starts, right? The only options are sudden-death time controls or adjournments. Wrong. There is another possibility which still yields a "fixed time" for the start of the next round; it's called adjudication. ------------------------------------------------------------- Back in the old days, there were serious problems with adjudication, including bias on the part of the adjudicator which might have him granting, say, Jose Capablanca a draw where he has given Joe Patzer a loss. But today, we have the answer to personal bias: computers. It also just so happens that the /strongest/ chess players in the world are reasonably inexpensive programs, and many tournament directors already have a notebook computer handy, for their pairings program. In addition, there are sites on the internet which give easy access to some basic endgame table- bases (although of limited use for now). You would have to factor in ratings. If a game between two 1500-rated players is adjudicated as a win using a line that only a 2500-rated chess computer can find, that wouldn't be fair. But if you factor in ratings, what of the player who is playing his first rated game? I wonder if some variation on the backgammon doubling method of forcing a losing player to resign might work... I have toyed around with the concept, looking at a lot of different approaches to the issue, and saw some ways it can work. It always run into issues, and lack of acceptance. I hear people use a doubling cube for chess in some European countries as a way to wager. I believe the issue here is mostly handling draws, and also having a way to pressure one's opponent to fold. I believe using an offshoot of a a Bronstein clock could be an answer here. Instead of just a time delay, before you have your clock eaten into, you do it differently. Each time a delay period (say a minute or 30 seconds) passes, your opponent scores a point. If game is drawn, whomever has the most points, wins the points for the draw. You can put pressure on your opponent by reducing the amount of time each player has between moves. You an also have it so that, if a player is going to drag too long between moves, they can do a time out, to get extra time. The end game can be reduced, by this time pressure method, to 10 seconds a move, causing the player worse off collapse. Of course, you can also offer this version of preventing stalling. If a certain number of these time periods passes without a move, a player can lose the game. Is this a heretical idea? Yes it is. Might it be worth considering? I hope so. Part of it came out of the need to figure how you could do time control for live chess that would make it more suitable for spectators to watch. Another way to do this, would be players periodically during the match could reduce the amount of time left in the game. You look at how much the person who has less time on their clock is left, and whomever has control of the decision to reduce time, can reduce the time left on the clocks by half what the player with less time on their clock has. Think you have the game wrapped up? Well halve the time each player has. That player then manages to get to decide if they want to reduce time later. You could also set this time reduction up so that players end up having to decide whether to quit or not. Maybe you double the points the match is worth, like the doubling cube. - Rich |
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#30
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David Richerby wrote:
I've played a bit of backgammon but mostly against the computer. I can't see any circumstances under which one might agree a draw -- if the game looks level, you'd just wait and not double, since it'll surely unbalance itself after a while. Since the men can only move forwards in Backgammon, progress of a sort must be made all the time so I don't see a situation comparable to the sort of honest draw in chess where neither player can make progress by any means other than a gross blunder from the opponent. I've not played backgammon except socially and against the computer -- am I missing something? Yes. To address your last point first - OF COURSE backgammon checkers can move backwards! But, the real point is - you often find yourself in a position where the entire game will hinge on the next roll. This is not unlike an "unclear" chess position where neither player can see enough to be sure who is winning. Another analogy might be a "race" in poker where the odds are about 50-50 with a large amount of money on the line. In chess, players may accept a draw rather than continue in an unclear position. Note that this is DIFFERENT than agreeing to a draw in a clearly drawn position, and even different than agreeing to a draw in a LEVEL position. In poker, players may "run it twice" (if allowed), or even "chop". In both cases, the point is to reduce variance when the odds are even but the result will be a win or a loss (and very rarely a draw). In backgammon, I've *often* been in positions where the cube has (legitimately) gone back and forth and the position on the board is now dead even....except that one player or the other will win based on the next roll of the dice. In that position, I'd much rather agree to a draw. In summary - these are all cases where the EV is 0.5, the stakes are (now) very high, and the result CANNOT be 0.5 but instead must be either 0.0 or 1.0. Both players may well rather accept the (well earned) 0.5 than gamble. -- Kenneth Sloan Computer and Information Sciences +1-205-932-2213 University of Alabama at Birmingham FAX +1-205-934-5473 Birmingham, AL 35294-1170 http://KennethRSloan.com/ |
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