I believe that most players reach their peak strength at age 30, and
then remain relatively stable for the next 20-30 years with their
ratings rarely going up or down more than 50 points.

Thus if you see an across-the-board drop of all players in the 30--50
age group of 100 to 150 points, you know that something is wrong.

On the other hand there is strong reason to believe that today's kids
are getting stronger because of the Internet.

For example, when I was a kid I had almost no chances to improve. I
went to the Lynchburg Chess Club once a week but the strongest player
there was below 1600. I became champion of my city at age 14 and from
then on all my opponents were weaker than I. My only chances to play
were about three times a year when traveled long distances to open
tournaments. I basically taught myself chess by ordering chess books
from Bushke and by playing postal chess.

Nowadays, any kid with a computer can play chess online with
grandmasters 24 hours a day. Opponents are always available. I am
certain that if I had had such opportunities when I was a kid I would
have become a good player.

Nowadays we have a 14 year old kid from Norway with a rating over 2700
who regularly beats the best players in the world. He has obviously
spent a lot of time on the Internet.

Sam Sloan