On Mon, 20 Jun 2005 03:23:49 GMT, "Randy Bauer"
wrote:

I will gladly provide my $100 check prior to the event. However, should
Bill win (expected) I would ask that my check be sent directly to his
charities, for tax purposes.

Randy Bauer

No charities for me. I need the money. My wife is already figuring out
how to spend it.

Sam Sloan

(Sam Sloan) writes:
Even with the draw odds, my current calculation is that Brock is a
heavy favorite. I was mistaken earlier.

I disagree. I think that objectively the match is nearly even. In a
four game match, draw odds is significant because all I have to do is
win two games and I win the match.

I'm backing away from my most recent prediction for now. My
calculation was based on Elo's original formula of performance =
normal distribution centered at the player's rating with SD=56 points,
from reading Elo's book about a bazillion years ago. But that gives a
much lower win percentage than the USCF formula of 1/(1+10^(dR/400))
for the lower rated player (logistic distribution rather than normal
distribution).

By Elo's formula, you should lose, but by intuition and by the USCF
formula it's closer to even (I'm not sure yet by how much).
Apparently the USCF formula is considered more correct than Elo's
these days, according to the Wikipedia page about the Elo system. I'm
still working on crunching the numbers according to the USCF formula.

Hmmm. Paul appears correct.

After 4 games, the 111 ELO difference should mean that the expected
score is 2.618 - 1.382

Statistically then, you would be expected to earn your 2.5 and a bit
more.

Your 2.0 vs 2.5 match terms are fair for a 43.66 ELO difference. Sloan
will be at a disadvantage even if you had offered terms of 1.5 vs 2.5
instead of 2.0 vs 2.5...

But Sloan has confidence. Perhaps that counts for something.

Paul Rubin wrote:
" writes:
Half of the results (draw or win) are favorable for him. Win is really
good for him--he has a chance of an early closeout; I don't. So he's
obviously the statistical favorite.

No I think you are the heavy favorite based on a 4 game match and 111
point ratings difference. Unless I made an error, the draw odds
aren't enough to overcome that difference.

How are colors supposed to be chosen for round 1?

"Sam Sloan" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 20 Jun 2005 03:23:49 GMT, "Randy Bauer"
wrote:

I will gladly provide my $100 check prior to the event. However, should
Bill win (expected) I would ask that my check be sent directly to his
charities, for tax purposes.

Randy Bauer

No charities for me. I need the money. My wife is already figuring out
how to spend it.

Sam Sloan

It's going to be Bill's to spend. Here, by the way, is a typical game of
mine against a 2150 player:

White: Bauer Black: Carroll Schmidt (2150)
Louis Paulsen Dubuque Open, 7-22-90

1.e4 d6 2.d4 Nf6 3.Nc3 g6 4.Be3 Bg7 5.Qd2 c6 6.Bh6 Bxh6 7.Qxh6 Qa5 8.Bd3 Be6
9.Nf3 Qh5 10.Qe3 0-0 11.0-0 Bg4 12.Nd2 Kg7 13.h3 Bc8 14.g4 Qa515.f4 Nbd7
16.Nc4 Qc7 17.g5 Ne8 18.Qf2 b5 19.Ne3 Nb6 20.f5 b4 21.Ne2 c5 22.c3 Bb7
23.Nf4 Qe8 24.Qh4 Ba6 25.Bxa6 Rxa6 26.fxg6 hxg6 27.Qh6+ Kg8 1-0

What was your rating again, Sloan?

Randy Bauer

Paul Rubin writes:
I'm still working on crunching the numbers according to the USCF
formula.

According to my latest calculation using the USCF formula, Brock is
favored by about 56-44. But having gotten it wrong so many times
before, I'm not enormously confident of this calculation either.
If anyone cares, I'll post the program I did it with.

"Sam Sloan" wrote in message
...

No charities for me. I need the money. My wife is already figuring out
how to spend it.

We'll need your SS# for the 1099.

ROFL--he's right!

Only if he wins it!

StanB wrote:
"Sam Sloan" wrote in message
...

No charities for me. I need the money. My wife is already figuring out
how to spend it.

We'll need your SS# for the 1099.

"StanB" writes:
We'll need your SS# for the 1099.

Do the sponsors also have to turn in 1099's?

wrote in message
oups.com...

ROFL--he's right!


Who is right? About what?