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Some final thoughts on the first USCF OMOV election.



 
 
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  #1  
Old July 12th 03, 10:13 PM
Beatchess
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Default Some final thoughts on the first USCF OMOV election.

recmate posted:

"I agree that Bruce's top three will be elected. I suspect that Marinello will
be first though, with Schultz second and Wagner third. Marinello is close to
McCrary and Niro, and was also endorsed by Eade, so will draw both "red" and
"black" votes."

Just for the record, during the campaign I did not make any promises or
political deals with anyone. I am consider myself independent and if I have to
chose a color probably will be green (I am being facetious), I just want to do
what is best for the chess and the USCF.

More than anything, this campaign has been a learning experience for me.

If I get elected, I just promise to be a good listener and make my own
decisions.

Yours for Chess,

Beatriz Marinello
  #2  
Old July 12th 03, 10:34 PM
Recmate
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Default Some final thoughts on the first USCF OMOV election.


Subject: Some final thoughts on the first USCF OMOV election.
From: (chessdud)
Date: 7/9/2003 7:16 PM Eastern Daylight Time
Message-id:

Bruce Draney wrote in message
...
Just a few thoughts and predictions as we near the end of the USCF's
first experimentation with OMOV. Here are some serious predictions of
what I think is likely to occur.

1) Only 900 people or fewer send in a ballot. I don't believe
now that even 1,000 will actually vote.
2) I am revising my predictions and picking an upset. Here are
the three top vote getters in what I believe will be their
finishing order:

a) Don Schultz-Don's personal vindication as a low

turn
out where many of his long time political

allies give
him enough votes to finish first among the

candidates.
Don is hoping for and anticipating a low

turnout.
A large democratic turnout could prove

disastrous for
Don. Those who are slightly paranoid, might

wonder if
the election screwups which benefit Don, are
deliberate or accidental, but given that USCF

has
never conducted a proper election in its last 4

tries
or so when they had to do something

dramatically
different clears Don of any direct

responsibility.

b) Joe Wagner-Dr. Wagner once again proves that to

be
elected to the USCF Board one need say or do

nothing.
A low turnout insures a Wagner victory. A

large
turnout of democratic voters would almost

assuredly
reject a candidate like Dr. Wagner, who deigns

not to
even bother to campaign, expecting a free pass

back
onto the Board. What does one expect from a

candidate
whose statement talks about how things have

completely
turned around in the last year. What a crock.

c) Beatriz Marinello-Originally, I thought that

Beatriz
would finish 4th, but I think she is going to

win 3rd.
With 15 year olds being allowed to vote and a

strong
grassroots electronic campaign being conducted

behind
the scenes, I believe the scholastic lobby will

once
again prove decisive by pushing Beatriz over

the top.
This happened with Shutt in 2001, as he got the

most
votes, appealing to both the adult traditionals

and
the scholastic lobby. Beatriz has a kind of

innocent
quality to her candidacy that the other

candidates
lack, being from another country. Beatriz also

has
national exposure and appeal as a former

Scholastic
Director. This gives her a big advantage over
Petersen, Sloan and Hanke. Kind of like the

bear and
the two fleeing campers, Beatriz doesn't need

to beat
Wagner or Schultz, she only needs to beat the

other
two to win, and I think she will.

d) Mikel Petersen-Originally I thought Mikel might

win,
but he is a bit too independent to gain the

trust and
support of Don Schultz and Dr. Wagner, and I

believe
he is too unknown outside of Florida to gain

lots of
votes which will instead go to Beatriz. If

less than
500 vote, Petersen might get in as it will be

mostly
the traditional politicos who are casting

ballots.
Petersen should try again if there is ever

another
USCF election before the bankruptcty.

e) Sloan and Hanke????? too close to call and

almost
completely dependent upon turnout. Ballot

screwups
hurt these two especially badly. Just a gut

feeling
tells me that more people will vote for Sam

than
vote for Tim. This is depressing to Tim, I'm

sure,
but he gave it a shot and Sam completely

disappeared
from the newsgroups for two months while the

campaign
was going on, while Tim was stalked and

harrassed by
Louis Blair. A good turnout helps Sam. A poor


turnout helps boost Hanke into 5th place. My
predicted turnout of 900 or so, gives the edge

to
Sloan. There are a lot more people who have

heard of
Sam and will vote for him as a protest

candidate than
have heard of Tim and will vote for him.

3) The campaign. This election has been awful. Just as was
expected years ago, most of the campaigning is now based on a
few meaningless sentences in Chess Life that probably very few
people read or got any information from. What no one knows
is how much secret behind the scenes campaigning is being
done. I am just guessing based upon Don's strategy in 2001,
that Don, Wagner and Petersen are telephone or writing letters
to top politicos that they have the addresses and phone
numbers of. They believe these are the most likely voters and
if they can get a solid bloc of them to support their election
that the democratic votes will likely split relatively evenly
among the 5 serious candidates. A turnout of less than 1,000
will certainly make this strategy viable. The wild card is
if there is a large turnout. However, given the screwups
with the ballots and postage, it is unlikely in my view that
even several thousand people will vote.

4) The wildcard factor. The real wildcard in my mind is voter
motivation. What is exciting about these candidates? How
many formerly disenfranchised voters will know there is an
election or will care, or even they do care will bother to
fill it out and send it in. Another thing is, whether the
teens will vote since they now can? If they do and all vote
in large numbers for specific candidates recommended by their
coaches, parents or teachers, they could swing the election.
In our national political system however, the worst % of
active voters is among the 18 year olds. This does not bode
well for Beatriz, although the scholastic lobby certainly has
great clout and can rally support for Beatriz (and is doing
so on the internet).

5) Does any of this really matter? Personally, the USCF is so
far gone in my opinion that it probably doesn't even matter
who wins or loses. McCrary, Camaratta, Brady and Shutt have
4 votes to do whatever they want. With either Schultz or
Wagner they'll have a minimum of 5-2 on all issues. McCrary
and Camaratta run everything and tell the others what to do.
If Schultz wins, I'd expect him to get no better than the
Secretary's job as I don't see Frank giving up his lucrative
financial arrangements with the B&E business, nor does
President McCrary appear interested in handing over power to
Don. Even if the wackiest scenario occurred with Marinello,
Hanke and Sloan being elected, Marinello and Shutt would find
common agendas regarding scholastic chess and Sloan could be
duped into doing what McCrary wanted in exchange for info, or
he could simply be ignored and laughed at by everyone else.
I look for a 6-1 McCrary majority with Beatriz either playing
ball, or feeling pretty darn isolated. Another possibility is
that Beatriz is taken under the wing of Shutt and convinced to
keep quiet in return for more personal perks for scholastic
chess.

6. The future of USCF? Doesn't look too good. Once the land and
building are sold, there will be few remaining assets left to
borrow against. USCF can pay down the LOC and restock for the
holidays for this coming Fall if they can sell the building
and live rent free in Crossville for a year. After that, the
USCF will be sinking or swimming on its own year to year
financial performance. This is not a good sign given the past
eight years' track record.


I don't think that there will be enough left to restock for the fall
season. IF they get $600K for the building, and that is suspect,
there will be closing costs. If they pay down the LOC that will leave
them with a max of $300K. Moving costs will most likely be between
$25 & 50K leaving $250-275K. They will have personnel costs above the
norm, final vacation settlements and any severance or special pay for
staying on. There will probably set up costs in the new location,
wiring for the computer and phone systems. There will be few sales as
the inventory will have to be packed, shipped, and unpacked for at
least a couple of weeks. The new staff will have to be trained
probably delaying sales and membership processing. I would be
supprised if there is $150K left after they are back in business. Of
course, the LMA and the Prof. Players fund will be unencumbered so
that can be used. It shouldn't be but it will be there. Another
factor is if the magazine is moving. If not, there will still be rent
to pay for them. Not a rosey picture no matter how you look at it.


The move will take place in 2004. I believe available funds to purchase
inventory for the 2003 holiday season will be at least the same as last year.

Bill Goichberg


Chessdud

7. The Scholastic takeover. Looks to me like down the road, that
USCF will be assimilated by scholastic chess. Currently the
scholastics have the most members, have the loudest voices and
have the best grassroots organization. I fully expect dues to
continue to be offered at steep discounts to children, while
the adult population dwindles away.

Best Regards,

Bruce









  #3  
Old July 13th 03, 03:12 AM
Bill Smythe
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Posts: n/a
Default Some final thoughts on the first USCF OMOV election.

"Beatchess" wrote:
.... if I have to
chose a color probably will be green (I am being facetious) ....


Ooh -- watch out for that one. Bruce Draney used that color a couple of
elections ago, with disastrous results.

Maybe blue or orange ....

Perhaps only long-time voting members are "red" or "black". Most of the new
voters may not even know what these terms refer to, and that's probably just
as well.

Fits in well with your "promise to be a good listener and make my own
decisions", too.

Bill Smythe



 




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