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Old March 3rd 04, 10:54 PM
Mike Leahy
 
Posts: n/a
Default statistics and busts

Today Steve Lopez posted a great article titled "The value of
looking ahead." It's on the ChessBase site at:

http://www.chessbase.com/newsdetail.asp?newsid=1510

Steve gets in trouble for not checking where the game statistics were
leading and he notes:

"Nothing can do the work for you here -- you have to do it yourself. Even
the "Book analysis window", which shows the critical lines of play, don't
foresee 8.f4 as part of the options it presents; it's been played just too
few times for the automatic functions of the program to pick up. So you have
to look ahead and do your own evaluation."

I disagree that "nothing can do the work for you." Bookup's "backsolving"
process does look ahead and solves backwards so Steve will see that 8.f4,
although not played often enough to affect game statistics, is going to be a
problem.

I wrote a similar article a couple years ago. It's at:
http://www.bookup.com/backsolv.htm

This problem is at the crux of combing a game database like ChessBase with a
positional database like Bookup. Take a look at both articles and let me
know if they don't inspire some critical thinking in your upcoming games.


Mike Leahy
"The Datbase Man!"
www.bookup.com


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Old March 4th 04, 03:40 AM
Mark
 
Posts: n/a
Default statistics and busts

Mike, are you "The Datbase Man!" or "The Database Man!"

See below ;^)

Mark


"Mike Leahy" wrote in message
.com...
Today Steve Lopez posted a great article titled "The value of
looking ahead." It's on the ChessBase site at:

http://www.chessbase.com/newsdetail.asp?newsid=1510

Steve gets in trouble for not checking where the game statistics were
leading and he notes:

"Nothing can do the work for you here -- you have to do it yourself. Even
the "Book analysis window", which shows the critical lines of play, don't
foresee 8.f4 as part of the options it presents; it's been played just too
few times for the automatic functions of the program to pick up. So you

have
to look ahead and do your own evaluation."

I disagree that "nothing can do the work for you." Bookup's "backsolving"
process does look ahead and solves backwards so Steve will see that 8.f4,
although not played often enough to affect game statistics, is going to be

a
problem.

I wrote a similar article a couple years ago. It's at:
http://www.bookup.com/backsolv.htm

This problem is at the crux of combing a game database like ChessBase with

a
positional database like Bookup. Take a look at both articles and let me
know if they don't inspire some critical thinking in your upcoming games.


Mike Leahy
"The Datbase Man!"
www.bookup.com




  #3   Report Post  
Old March 4th 04, 05:44 AM
Mike Leahy
 
Posts: n/a
Default statistics and busts

Hey Mark,

You can call me most anything... except late for dinner.

Mike Leahy
"The Daftbase Man!"
www.bookup.com

"Mark" wrote in message
news:[email protected]_s52...
Mike, are you "The Datbase Man!" or "The Database Man!"

See below ;^)

Mark


"Mike Leahy" wrote in message
.com...
Today Steve Lopez posted a great article titled "The value of
looking ahead." It's on the ChessBase site at:

http://www.chessbase.com/newsdetail.asp?newsid=1510

Steve gets in trouble for not checking where the game statistics were
leading and he notes:

"Nothing can do the work for you here -- you have to do it yourself.

Even
the "Book analysis window", which shows the critical lines of play,

don't
foresee 8.f4 as part of the options it presents; it's been played just

too
few times for the automatic functions of the program to pick up. So you

have
to look ahead and do your own evaluation."

I disagree that "nothing can do the work for you." Bookup's

"backsolving"
process does look ahead and solves backwards so Steve will see that

8.f4,
although not played often enough to affect game statistics, is going to

be
a
problem.

I wrote a similar article a couple years ago. It's at:
http://www.bookup.com/backsolv.htm

This problem is at the crux of combing a game database like ChessBase

with
a
positional database like Bookup. Take a look at both articles and let

me
know if they don't inspire some critical thinking in your upcoming

games.


Mike Leahy
"The Datbase Man!"
www.bookup.com






  #4   Report Post  
Old March 4th 04, 10:28 AM
Mark van der Leek
 
Posts: n/a
Default statistics and busts


Seeing when particular moves were played, or who
played the move can also give useful
information helping you to make a better choice.

My PosBase positional chess database provides easy
and quick access to exactly this information. It
shows for any position in the database the list of all
the games in which the position occurred, what move
was played, and who played it. The list can be
sorted on date as well as ELO.

Using PosBase, I was able to see that strong players
were not playing 6. ... Ngxe5 anymore, but 6. ... O-O,
and that after 6. ... Ngxe5 7. Nxg5 Nxg5, strong players
were very succesfully chosing 8.f4 (among them Smyslov).


Take a look and see for yourself

www.wmlsoftware.com/posbase.html

Additonally, I have put up a pgn file with games that contain the
variation under discussion as well.

www.wmlsoftware.com/download/A52.zip

Greetings,
Mark van der Leek
WML Software for Chess
  #5   Report Post  
Old March 4th 04, 06:07 PM
Mike Ogush
 
Posts: n/a
Default statistics and busts

On Wed, 03 Mar 2004 22:54:55 GMT, "Mike Leahy"
wrote:

Today Steve Lopez posted a great article titled "The value of
looking ahead." It's on the ChessBase site at:

http://www.chessbase.com/newsdetail.asp?newsid=1510

Steve gets in trouble for not checking where the game statistics were
leading and he notes:

"Nothing can do the work for you here -- you have to do it yourself. Even
the "Book analysis window", which shows the critical lines of play, don't
foresee 8.f4 as part of the options it presents; it's been played just too
few times for the automatic functions of the program to pick up. So you have
to look ahead and do your own evaluation."

I disagree that "nothing can do the work for you." Bookup's "backsolving"
process does look ahead and solves backwards so Steve will see that 8.f4,
although not played often enough to affect game statistics, is going to be a
problem.


I really like Bookup's backsolving feature. In fact it is the main
reason that I purchased Bookup. However, vven Bookup's backsolving
feature can be fooled if you rely on the game results to indicate how
to evaluate a given move. A game result is not perfectly correlated
with which side had an advantage after a particular move- If one side
has an advantage or even a won game after a particluar move they can
still lose on time or lose my making a subsequent blunder that throws
away the advantage.

Someone still needs to do the work of determining that a move leads to
a particular evaluation. In many cases that work has already been
done by GMs; the evaluation may be published in a book on the opening,
or in the annotations to the game (in Chess Informant or elsewhere).
That evaluation can be plugged into Bookup's backsolving.

When a GM evaluation is not published you can still check with a
computer (via Deep Position Analysis in Frtitz and friends for
example). Since this might necessitate doing through analysis of many
positions, you might want to try filter down the number of posisitons
to check. This can be done infer where the evaluation of a particluar
line has changed by looking at trends regarding which move is played
by strong players. [See the message about PosBase in this news
thread.]

Also look at Steve Lopez' articles on using Chessbase and Fritz to
help learn a new opening. These describe how a number of features of
both of these programs can help one to arrive at a correct evaluation
of moves.

I wrote a similar article a couple years ago. It's at:
http://www.bookup.com/backsolv.htm

This problem is at the crux of combing a game database like ChessBase with a
positional database like Bookup. Take a look at both articles and let me
know if they don't inspire some critical thinking in your upcoming games.


Mike Leahy
"The Datbase Man!"
www.bookup.com





  #6   Report Post  
Old March 4th 04, 08:10 PM
Mike Leahy
 
Posts: n/a
Default statistics and busts


"Mike Ogush" wrote in message
...

I really like Bookup's backsolving feature. In fact it is the main
reason that I purchased Bookup. However, vven Bookup's backsolving
feature can be fooled if you rely on the game results to indicate how
to evaluate a given move. A game result is not perfectly correlated
with which side had an advantage after a particular move- If one side
has an advantage or even a won game after a particluar move they can
still lose on time or lose my making a subsequent blunder that throws
away the advantage.

Someone still needs to do the work of determining that a move leads to
a particular evaluation. In many cases that work has already been
done by GMs; the evaluation may be published in a book on the opening,
or in the annotations to the game (in Chess Informant or elsewhere).
That evaluation can be plugged into Bookup's backsolving.

When a GM evaluation is not published you can still check with a
computer


This is what Bookup's new power tool "Find Novelties" accomplishes.
It points out where the computer grossly disagrees with the assessement
given to a position. It can be used to quickly find the positions that are
automatically assessed based on the result of the game when the game
result might be a loss on time - or it might be incorrectly recorded.

This function isn't limited to leaf nodes. Bookup can be told to find
any position where the engine's suggestion doesn't jive with the
Informant assessment (by a user selectable amount).

Mike Leahy
"The Database Man!"
www.bookup.com


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