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Old April 10th 16, 12:15 AM posted to rec.games.chess.misc
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Default Carlsen - Karjakin

Was looking up all of there previous encounters in the database and
almost 90% of their encounters were in blitz or rapid events. They
played just a couple of games in real tournaments and they are even. I
thought that there tournament encounters were much more than that. Just
curious as to why this is. Hard to gauge their WCC match on their past
games when they've played mostly blitz.

EZoto
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Old April 10th 16, 11:02 AM posted to rec.games.chess.misc
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Default Carlsen - Karjakin

On Sunday, April 10, 2016 at 5:15:27 AM UTC+8, Euclides Zoto wrote:
Was looking up all of there previous encounters in the database and
almost 90% of their encounters were in blitz or rapid events. They
played just a couple of games in real tournaments and they are even. I
thought that there tournament encounters were much more than that. Just
curious as to why this is. Hard to gauge their WCC match on their past
games when they've played mostly blitz.

EZoto


Just look at Elos. Carlsen has a 60% or more chance of winning based on Elo differences, I think the statisticians give him 75%, since apparently the ability to get a draw in a 'short' match favors the higher rated player, meaning, it makes it imperative that Kajackin win, which is tough to do vs Carlsen. So Carlsen needs one early win, then draw draw draw and Kajackin will be hard pressed to win.

The entire match will be anti-climatic.

RL
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