Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1   Report Post  
Old April 3rd 04, 12:16 AM
ASCACHESS
 
Posts: n/a
Default More Signs of USCF Disaster

Traditionally, scholastic chess has been the one area that has grown and grown
and grown.
Amongst the groups that could be relied upon to produce record numbers year
after year, the National Elementary was number one.
Indeed for the last decade, it has grown in every year a supernational was not
held.
This year, we see a change in trend.
Instead of the 2300 or so from last year, this year there are only 1878
players.
This the lowest number since 1998.

For months we have noticed the downward trend in scholastic chess and most of
us have written it off to the yearly membership swings, however now we have
evidence that the problem is not merely seasonal.

The administration had been counting upon making a killing at the national
scholastics to keep them afloat. That now seems in jeopardy.

It seems supply/demand curves apply even in scholastic chess.
When you take away the magazine, raise the entry fees, and raise the dues again
and again for the sole purpose of keeping the adult organization afloat, it
seems the rooster is crowing loudly.

Richard Peterson
  #3   Report Post  
Old April 3rd 04, 07:04 AM
HAASpittle
 
Posts: n/a
Default More Signs of USCF Disaster

Speaking of disasters, we should be only days away from the posting of new
USCF membership figures. Will the decline in adult numbers be halted this
time? I will hazard a guess that the adult numbers will be down again,.. but
by less than 200.

Haas
  #4   Report Post  
Old April 3rd 04, 07:50 AM
ASCACHESS
 
Posts: n/a
Default More Signs of USCF Disaster

Perhaps it has something to do with the location. Pittsburgh is quite
a distance from every major Chess city, such as Chicago, New York
City, Miami and Philadelphia.

Where were the past ones held at?

Roger


Actually, that makes Pittsburgh very central.
If a city is within one days driving distance of the major metro areas, it
usually bodes well for the tournament.
But consider, Portland, OR was well over 2000 and last year was well over 2300
if I recall correctly.

Rp
  #7   Report Post  
Old April 3rd 04, 02:38 PM
MR RIBBY
 
Posts: n/a
Default More Signs of USCF Disaster

I believe the elementary numbers this year are 1963 players, not 1878.


  #8   Report Post  
Old April 3rd 04, 03:31 PM
ASCACHESS
 
Posts: n/a
Default More Signs of USCF Disaster


I believe the elementary numbers this year are 1963 players, not 1878.


This is apparently correct and was a late update. It is still 3-400 less than
last year and still the lowest since the 1999.

It is interesting that the 1878 posting was done an hour after the first round
of the tournament started, while the 1963 posting was done at 11:37 pm, hours
after the second round was finished.

Rp

  #9   Report Post  
Old April 3rd 04, 03:52 PM
Randy Bauer
 
Posts: n/a
Default More Signs of USCF Disaster

Richard,

Have you or anyone else had a chance to do any data mining to determine
whether there are any internal explanations of the decline? For example,
what is the general ratio of local players to long distance travelers in
this versus previous events? If the local percentage is down, it could
indicate a less active local scholastic program rather than any national
trend. I know that the city of Pittsburgh has had financial problems of its
own, which may be indicative of a poor performing local economy, which could
impact on participation in recreational activities with costs associated
with them.

Mind you, I am not nearly as knowledgeable on these issues as you, I'm just
suggesting there may be a need to do some hypothesis testing. While a
significant decline is reason for concern, it's also possible that it is an
outlier that can be explained by a particular set of circumstances.

Randy Bauer
I am a candidate for the USCF Executive Board


"ASCACHESS" wrote in message
...

I believe the elementary numbers this year are 1963 players, not 1878.


This is apparently correct and was a late update. It is still 3-400 less

than
last year and still the lowest since the 1999.

It is interesting that the 1878 posting was done an hour after the first

round
of the tournament started, while the 1963 posting was done at 11:37 pm,

hours
after the second round was finished.

Rp



  #10   Report Post  
Old April 3rd 04, 04:07 PM
ASCACHESS
 
Posts: n/a
Default More Signs of USCF Disaster

Have you or anyone else had a chance to do any data mining to determine
whether there are any internal explanations of the decline?


An excellent question.

The site provides the number of registrants from each state. To that end, it
is fairly easy to determine the decline is across the board.
It is astonishing that besides Pennsylvania (the host state) and New York
(which would have 500 entries if the tournament were in hell), there isn't one
other state which has 100 attendees.
Significant are the losses from Texas, Illinois, and Arizona which are
traditionally among the largest programs at the national elementary.
Whenever you lose 20% of your attendees, something is going on.

Entry fees were raised to $35 this year. No scholastic director. No
scholastic magazine. Doubling the rating fees. Higher scholastic dues.

Reminds me of a Monte Python skit. "Just one more thin mint."

Rp
Reply
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules

Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Past USCF Insights WPraeder rec.games.chess.politics (Chess Politics) 7 April 3rd 04 07:10 PM
THE U.S.CHESS TRUST WPraeder rec.games.chess.politics (Chess Politics) 22 December 23rd 03 06:30 AM
Message from Yasser Seirawan about drug testing Tim Hanke rec.games.chess.politics (Chess Politics) 60 December 17th 03 07:04 PM
A new model for USCF. Bruce Draney rec.games.chess.politics (Chess Politics) 21 November 14th 03 11:04 PM
Peterson Lawsuit Don Mihokovich rec.games.chess.politics (Chess Politics) 33 August 29th 03 05:08 AM


All times are GMT +1. The time now is 05:03 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2004-2019 ChessBanter.
The comments are property of their posters.
 

About Us

"It's about Chess"

 

Copyright © 2017